Based on the materials of the roundtable of the Institute for Global Politics “Russian Authoritarianism as a Threat to Global Security”

“Russia Is Increasingly Setting Itself up for Confrontation Not only with Ukraine, Which Is Now Quite Obvious, but also with NATO As a Whole“

The title of our meeting is “Russian Authoritarianism as a Threat to Global Security”. This is a very apt title, not least because it reflects my recent book, “The New Total War”.

As we know, Ukraine is an obvious end in itself for the Putin regime. But it also clearly demonstrates the tools that Putin’s army and, indeed, the Russian state are using against Ukraine. This is a clear example of a highly integrated form of total war using military and non-military instruments. It is important for us to understand this, and I will explain why.

I believe that Russia is increasingly tuning up for a confrontation not only with Ukraine, which is now quite obvious, but also with NATO as a whole. Even in Europe, we see not only assassinations, but also, since 2015, an increase in sabotage. And now in the Baltic Sea, we also see naval and air threats against naval forces trying to prevent the use or export of illegal Russian oil from the Russian Federation. We also know that Putin sees himself as a fighter for the formation of a new world order in which the West is far from being at the forefront.

The integrated war has many goals, one of which is to control the Russian people. And I agree that the Russian people should not go unpunished, because they bear certain responsibility for what is happening now. But it is obvious that the regime’s new form of total war is largely aimed at controlling and shaping Russian consciousness, as well as at making the Russian population give up basic human norms. As for Ukraine, it will be free when it is able to defend itself not only against Russian military power and military force, but also against non-military instruments of integrated warfare. And for me, this means two things that some Ukrainians want to hear and others do not.

First, the Russian war is not just a military war. The Ukrainian side has to understand that Russia, or the Putin regime, can attack by taking political and economic measures. And they are doing it. Because the cleaner and more transparent the Ukrainian economic and political society is, from judges to tax inspectors, the more difficult it is for the FSB, GRU, organized crime or oligarch partners to find ways to influence and corrupt Ukrainian society.

The second related point is that Russians, as a rule, do not speak Ukrainian, while Ukrainians, as a rule, still speak Russian and certainly understand it. And instead of seeing the Russian language as hostile, Ukrainians should see it as their secret weapon against Russian regime, to try to get messages and information to the Russian people. And I do think that this form of narrative warfare is important, but it is underestimated in Ukraine. And the West should pay more attention to it.

Over the next decades, Ukraine will be free when Russia gives up authoritarianism and effectively adopts the rule of law in the field of human rights in the country, as well as in the functioning of the state. For this to happen, we all need to convey our messages and information to them, even if very few people in Russia hear them. Some are still listening, and we must continue to do so. And Ukraine should definitely be involved in delivering these messages to the Russian people, to those Russians who are ready to receive this message, even if it is with resentment, because in the future, although only military force can stop Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s security will depend on its ability to reach out to the Russian population and try to explain to them why what Putin has done, and the revival of a kind of neo-fascist authoritarianism, are wrong and evil. And also why it all is very much against the long-term interests of the Russian state.

Robert Seely,
British politician, former member of the UK Parliament